Recall that Australia received an unprecedented 980,000 net overseas migrants over the last two calendar years:
The May federal budget tipped that net overseas migration would moderate to 395,000 in 2023-24, followed by 260,000 in 2024-25:
Source: 2024 Federal Budget
The latest data suggests that net overseas migration will blow well past the federal budget’s forecast.
The official quarterly net overseas migration figures showed that 258,300 net migrants landed in Australia in Q3 and Q4 2023.
This leaves only 136,700 worth of net overseas migration over Q1 and Q2 2024 to meet the federal budget’s 395,000 projection for 2023-24.
Monthly net permanent and long-term arrival numbers have remained hot so far in 2024, as illustrated below:
216,810 net permanent and long-term arrivals landed in Australia over the first four months of this year, a record high.
On Thursday, the Department of Home Affairs released temporary visa numbers for May, which remained at a record high 2,400,000 (excluding visitors) in non-seasonally adjusted terms, and down only slightly from peak in seasonally adjusted terms.
The below chart from Justin Fabo at Antipodean Macro tells the story:
The number of temporary student visa holders in Australia also remains historically high:
Based on the above data, it seems inevitable that net overseas migration will blow way past the May federal budget’s forecast for 2023-24.
This is par for the course for the Albanese government, which has consistently underestimated immigration numbers while in government.
