Westpac with the note.
- Leading Index growth rate nudges back up to –0.13%.
- Lower commodity prices partially offset by stabilising hours worked.
- Economic activity improving but to remain below trend in to early 2025.
Westpac’s growth forecasts are broadly consistent with the Leading Index signals. GDP growth is expected to come in at an annualised pace of just 0.8% over the first half of 2024, a result that was foreshadowed by the weak Index reads in 2023. Growth is forecast to lift a little through the second half of 2024 and into early 2025 but remain lacklustre overall at a 2.2% annual pace (about flat in per capita terms).
