The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released retail sales data for the month of June and the quarter.
Australian retail turnover rose 0.5% (seasonally adjusted) in June on the back of “end-of-financial year sales”, which “boosted spending in June by more than usual, particularly on discretionary items like furniture, electrical goods and clothing”.
Despite the monthly rebound, retail sales volumes fell another 0.3% (seasonally adjusted) in the June quarter of 2024, extending the recession.
Even worse, retail volumes on a per capita basis (-0.9%) declined for an eighth consecutive quarter, down 3.0% compared to the same time last year.
The following chart from Justin Fabo at Antipodean Macro plots the decline in retail sales volumes in both aggregate and per capita terms:
Indeed, per capita retail sales have almost retraced back to their pre-pandemic level.
At the margin, the soft quarterly result adds weight to the view that the Reserve Bank of Australia will hold rates at next week’s monetary policy meeting.
The Aussie consumer is clearly under immense pressure already.
