Australian dollar flames out with commodities

DXY bounced off support last night:

AUD is hitting resistance:

Noth Asia rolled:

Oil is in trouble:

Metals flamed out:

Miners puked:

This is not your grandfather’s EM rally:

Junk is fine:

The curve steepened:

Stocks are toying with a nasty double top:

NVDA passed the test but it still may not be enough:

At issue is still slowing growth and the looming election versus the Fed.

I can’t see enough slowing for a 50bps cut. And any data bad enough to get us there may be too ugly for risk.

As well, DXY position has moved a long way bearish so some counter-trend is fair enough. MS on options:

However, broader DXY positioning still hs room to fall:

So I still see AUD higher past whatever this consolidation proves to be.