Housing is overpriced, but Aussies are buying anyway

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The Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index was released on Tuesday and revealed a massive gulf between Australians’ sentiment about property prices and their purchasing appetite.

Housing sentiment versus prices

Source: AMP

The ‘time to buy a dwelling index’ remained at record lows, whereas expectations for house price appreciation remained bullish, indicating future appreciation in home values.

Rising prices, along with the highest mortgage rates in more than a decade, have sent home affordability and ability to pay tumbling:

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Borrowing capacity

Yet, Australians continue to pile into the housing market, driving both prices and average mortgage sizes to record highs:

Average loan size and dwelling prices
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The housing ‘Hunger Games’ has gripped the nation, with Aussies feeling obligated to enter the market amid strong rental inflation and the fear that prices will continue to climb, shutting them out indefinitely.

Asking rents

Underpinning this acute sense of FOMO [Fear of Missing Out] is the fact that just under one million net overseas migrants arrived in Australia over the last two years, while the rate of home building collapsed:

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Housing supply and demand

According to CoreLogic, the number of homes listed for sale is 15.9% lower than the five-year average.

Residential listings

Source: CoreLogic

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This is why Australia’s housing market resembles the Hunger Games, with demand outpacing supply.

This imbalance between demand and supply is forecast to continue, implying that the rental crisis will roll on, forcing Australians to do whatever they can to get into the market.

Housing shortage
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The Albanese government’s mad immigration policy has facilitated the housing Hunger Games, resulting in unprecedented levels of FOMO and ‘panic buying’.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.