RBA out-dumbs Treasury

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Just how dumb are we going to get?

If it is up to the AFR, it will vegetable stupid:

Headline inflation is expected to fall sharply again in August as more consumers receive $300 federal government energy bill credits, potentially sending headline inflation below 3% and back into the RBA’s target band.

But the latest ABS figures show underlying price pressures remain uncomfortably strong, underscoring the RBA’s concern about the persistence of high inflation.

While annual trimmed mean inflation eased to 3.8% in July, from 4.1% in June, it remained well above the RBA’s 2% to 3% target band.

“The distortions caused by the extension of the electricity subsidies is also fooling no-one, least of all the RBA,” Betashares chief economist David Bassanese said.

Actually, they are. They’re fooling David Bassanese and the AFR.

Hands up anyone who thinks energy rebates will be cut? If you raised your hand, then leave the room.

There is no way that these subsidies will be cut to deliver a massive inflation shock just before the election.

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Not even Jim Chalmers is this stupid. If anything, the rebates will be expanded in MYEFO:

So, who is the fool here?

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The economists operating in some perfect test tube of macro management?

Or the economists who have control of countless billions of taxpayer funding to extend the refunds forever?

Only in Australia would you get the dumbest politicians in the world, combined with a central bank that thinks politicians won’t be the dumbest in the world, making it the dumbest central bank in the world.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.