Victoria is the nation’s homelessness capital

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Victoria has become Australia’s homelessness capital.

Victoria has the lowest proportion of social housing in Australia, accounting for only 3% of total dwellings. This is far lower than the national average of 4.2%, already considered low by international standards.

Last year, The Guardian reported that Victoria’s social housing stock increased by only 74 units in four years “despite a huge waiting list” that “has grown by about 45% – from about 44,000 applications in June 2018 to 64,168 in June 2022”.

7News likewise reported that the Victorian Government had “demolished more public housing than it has built over the last four years”, with government data revealing “that for every 26 homes taken out of the system, only 12 are being rebuilt”.

In May 2024, The Age reported that Victoria has thousands of vacant public housing units and the country’s lowest occupancy rate.

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According to the Productivity Commission, Victoria had 64,720 public housing units at the end of 2022-23. This compares to 64,404 in the year ending June 2015, implying a net increase of little more than 300 public housing units in eight years.

Throughout Labor’s ‘Big Build’ program, Victoria’s public housing occupancy rate has continuously decreased, from 98.1% in 2016, 96.4% in 2019, 94.8% in 2022, and 93.7% in June 2023.

In June 2023, Victoria’s public housing occupancy rate was 93.7%, much lower than that of Queensland (98.2%), New South Wales (97.0%), and Western Australia (96.8%).

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Last month, the Herald-Sun reported that “more than 100 homes have been lost from Victoria’s public housing” during the “worst housing crisis in living memory”.

“In the 2022-23 financial year, Homes Victoria had acquired 854 private properties to be used as part of their head leasing program, but from July 1, 2023 to April 2024, that number dropped to 747”.

This week, the Herald-Sun reported that “Melbourne has become Australia’s youth homelessness capital with more than 15,000 needing help to keep a roof over their head”.

“Council to Homeless Persons chief executive Deborah Di Natale said both state and federal government’s were in an “incredibly alarming situation”, with more homeless children in Greater Melbourne than any other city or region in the nation”.

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Homelessness snapshot

The rise in Victorian homelessness comes amid a population increase of around 2.3 million people this century, with the state officially projected to add another 4.2 million people by 2056:

Victorian population projection

Based on these projections, homelessness will inevitably worsen as population demand continues to outstrip housing supply.

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Many more Victorians will be thrown into insecure housing arrangements or homelessness.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.