Last week, the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) announced new energy supply and demand projections for the next decade.
According to AEMO, a slower uptake of battery-electric vehicles (EVs) will reduce demand on the electrical system.
In December, AEMO predicted that seven million electric vehicles would be sold over the following ten years, but that projection has been reduced to four million.
The downward revision is the latest sign that expectations for increased electric vehicle use are fading.
Last Monday, Ampol, one of the country’s largest petrol suppliers, cancelled plans to triple the number of EV charging stations this year.
Meanwhile, a June 2024 McKinsey Mobility Consumer survey of over 30,000 respondents from several nations, including Australia, found that nearly half of Australian EV owners (49%) are “very likely” to return to traditional petrol and diesel vehicles.
The existing state of public charging infrastructure in the studied countries was the most pressing problem for EVs (35%), followed by concerns about ownership costs (34%).
New car sales figures from the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries (FCAI) suggest that demand for full-battery EVs has collapsed.
Overall new car sales fell by 10.6% year-on-year in July, led by a 21.6% decline in passenger motor vehicles (PMVs):
FCAI Chief Executive Tony Weber noted that while demand for hybrids has surged, demand for battery EVs has evaporated:
“Consumers continue to embrace low emission vehicles with hybrid sales up 44.9% on August 2023 while sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles are up 119.8%.
“However, in line with the experience in many global markets, sales of battery electric vehicles are disappointing”.
“This is despite the supply of battery electric vehicles increasing significantly with more brands and EV models having entered the Australian market”.
As I argued last week, battery EVs are not ready for prime time. They are too expensive, lack fast and convenient charging options, offer poor range, and are expensive to insure and repair.
I believe manufacturers will struggle to gain traction with EVs until they can provide an affordable car that can hot-swap a battery in the same way that you would exchange a Soda Stream or BBQ gas bottle at a fueling station.
Furthermore, large-scale adoption of EVs will necessitate a complete overhaul of Australia’s electrical transmission infrastructure, including poles, wires, sub-stations, and generators.
Once a few fuel stations have installed EV fast chargers, we will have to upgrade the high-tension wires and high-power transformers that supply those substations. Next, there are the generators.
All of those high-capacity power lines are significantly heavier than the current ones, so we may need to rebuild all of the transmission towers as well.
Then there is the issue with the high-power transformers, where there is a global shortage.
Proponents of EVs continue to talk about how they will become more viable as battery technology advances. However, battery technology is secondary to the fundamental engineering structural difficulty of EVs.
Scaling up the national car fleet for EVs will require a full rebuild of the generation and distribution network, which could cost hundreds of billions of dollars, if not trillions.
Finally, the environmental benefits of EVs are greatly overblown, as John Cadogan explains in detail in the video below.
I’d argue that a Toyota Corolla that lasts 20 years is more environmentally friendly than a 2-tonne Tesla that is lucky to last 10 years. A standard hybrid Corolla is even better.
