I noted last week how the latest net permanent and long-term arrivals data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has reported record net arrivals so far in 2024:
As shown above, there were 335,184 net arrivals in the first seven months of 2024, 15,361 higher than last year’s record arrivals and 110,175 higher than the same period in 2019.
While net arrivals have slowed since March compared to last year, every month of net arrivals in 2024 has been higher than in 2019.
Therefore, immigration into Australia remains turbo-charged and is running close to all-time highs.
By dividing aggregate GDP reported in the ABS national accounts by per capita GDP, one can derive Australia’s population growth up to Q2 2024.
The following chart plots the quarterly growth in Australia’s population as derived from the national accounts:
Australia’s population grew by 177,500 in Q2 2024, which was around 7,900 higher than Q2 2023 and the second highest quarterly result in history (behind the 184,700 recorded in Q3 2023).
The next chart plots Australia’s annual population growth as derived from the national accounts:
Australia’s population grew by 655,800 in the 2023-24 financial year. This was up from 647,900 in the March quarter and the second highest annual result in history (behind 676,100 recorded in the year to September 2023).
Recall that the Albanese government’s first federal budget in October 2022 projected net overseas migration (NOM) of 470,000 over its first two years (FY 23 and 24):
Source: October 2022 Federal Budget
Instead, Australia received roughly one million net overseas migrants, with the above data suggesting that immigration remains at extreme levels and once again overshooting the May 2024 federal budget’s projections:
Source: May 2024 Federal Budget
Clearly, Treasury’s Centre for Population is incapable of accurately forecasting NOM.
