This week we get the monthly inflation print for August.
Westpac sees 2.7% and Antipodean Macro 2.6%. Well within the RBA’s target band and a trigger for rate cuts:
However, the result will be driven by energy rebates:
The RBA does not include the rebates in quarterly trimmed mean inflation, which Westpac sees as a whopping 0.8% higher in the September QTR at 3.5%.
The central bank sees core inflation above the target rate until 2025:
To repeat, the almost 1% difference between headline and core inflation in Australia is the direct result of the East Coast gas cartel energy gouging.
The RBA has been at pains to say it will ignore Jim “chicken” Chalmer’s energy rebates because it sees them as temporary.
So, the East Coast gas cartel has driven an unprecedented wedge between fiscal and monetary authorities.
This is ridiculous by all concerned.
The gas price remains glued to Albo’s absurd $12Gj price floor:
Electricity prices are falling on seasonally softening demand but the AER is going to hike bills again in 2025:
So Chalmers, or his successor, will have to continue the energy rebates and the RBA is making deepening false assumptions about inflation levels.
A handful of greedy energy corporations and a cowardly treasurer have broken fiscal and monetary management and the RBA is about to become public enemy number one as a result.
What it will take for this pathetic country to instead break the energy cartel that is killing it, I know not.
