The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released demographic data for the March quarter of 2024, which revealed that net overseas migration (NOM) has blown way past the May federal budget’s projections.
Australia received 133,800 net overseas migrants in Q1 2024, which was the third-highest quarterly volume on record:
The May federal Budget projected 395,000 NOM for 2023-24:
Source: 2024 Federal Budget
However, 388,200 net overseas migrants arrived over the first three quarters of 2024, suggesting that net migration will exceed the budget’s projections by more than 100,000 people.
Australia’s population expanded by 164,600 in Q1 2024, which was also the third largest volume on record.
Over the year to March 2024, there were 718,400 migrant arrivals in Australia, offset by 208,700 departures. This gave NOM of 509,700:
As usual, NSW (168,100) and VIC (151,700) received the lion’s share of Australia’s international migrants:
Australia’s population also expanded by 615,200 in the year to March 2024:
There were 289,700 births in the year to March 2024, offset by 184,100 deaths:
This gave a natural increase of just 105,600 in the year to March:
It also meant that NOM as a percentage of Australia’s population growth remained at near record high levels at 83%:
We know from the Q2 national accounts that Australia’s population growth likely rebounded in Q2:
Therefore, Australia’s population growth remains red hot and continues to overwhelm the nation’s housing supply:
The Housing Industry Association (HIA) released a media release in response to the population data, labelling the government’s failure to control immigration a “systemic policy failure” that “compounds the challenge of delivering sufficient housing”.
“The HIA has always sought stable and reliable migration settings to avoid boom-bust cycles in home building”, said HIA chief economist Tim Reardon.
“The underestimation of population growth is a systemic policy failure that compounds the challenge of delivering sufficient housing”.
“State governments and local councils need accurate guidance on population to assist with planning for growth”.
“This is not just a short-term problem emerging due to a spike in population after the pandemic”, concluded Reardon
When lobby groups like the HIA push back, you know that the federal government has lost control of immigration.
Australia will never solve the housing crisis so long as the population continues to grow like a science experiment via excessive immigration.
