It has been a year since former Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews proclaimed that the state would build 80,000 homes yearly for 10 straight years.
Victoria has never built more than 70,000 new dwellings in a calendar year since Labor was elected in 2014. This means that the 80,000 annual target requires a significant ramp-up in construction activity. However, the data is already headed in the wrong direction:
The 800,000 target is part of a broader plan to build two million new homes by 2051 to keep up with the state’s rapid population growth.
The Victorian government wants the bulk of these two million homes to be built in established suburbs of Melbourne.
The 2021 Census stated that Melbourne had 2,057,482 dwellings, whereas Victoria had 2,805,661.
Therefore, in only 30 years, Victoria is projected to record a 71% increase in dwellings, primarily apartments.
In other words, the plan would require roughly one new dwelling for every two existing homes within the city’s boundaries.
Leaving aside the fact that Victoria’s housing plan has minimal chance of being met and the level of construction will almost certainly lag behind the target, what about the schools and other social and economic infrastructure required to meet the projected housing density and population growth?
The Age reported that “more than 40 state schools in Melbourne are full or overcrowded, with over a quarter of them located in areas pegged for huge development from next year”.
“The state government has named 10 activity centres where councils will be stripped of planning controls in order to fast-track approvals and boost housing supply”.
“As well as Chadstone, they include Camberwell Junction, Ringwood, Moorabbin, Frankston, Epping, Niddrie, North Essendon and High Street in Preston”.
“The hubs were identified as part of the government’s housing strategy, which includes a pledge to build 60,000 homes in established suburban areas, with a view to expanding this across 120 Melbourne locations”.
If Victoria is to accommodate an extra two million homes and three million people over the next 27 years, it will require commensurate investment in schools, hospitals, police stations, libraries, etc.
Where is the plan to provide these things? Answer: There is no plan.
Premier Jacinta Allan is too busy travelling to India to grovel for more students and migrants.
