The nuclear debate is afoot:
The Australian Energy Regulator says the nation’s coal-fired powers stations are too decrepit to keep running until nuclear power can be operational because it will take eight to 10 years just to establish the regulatory framework for nuclear.
But the opposition, which plans to roll out the first of its seven nuclear power plants in either 2035 or 2037, disputed the assertion and, based on advice from the International Atomic Energy Agency, maintained the first generator could be available in about 10 years.
Available where? Not in Australia!
Small Modular Nuclear Reactors (SMRs) are enjoying renewed interest, in part owing to their potential usefulness to AI data centres which like the optionality of adding power.
SMRs may come to market in due course but there is A LOT of work and time still ahead before they are viable.
Here’s Morgan Stanley’s best guess for availability:
We estimate that the entire process from initiating pre-application activities (design and construction permits) to full SMR operation could take between 6-10+ years.
•While the average LWR design certification (only 7 ever issued) required about 6-10 years to obtain, we note that NuScale’s US600 design certification application was docketed with the NRC in 2017 and issued in 2020.•Even when conducted simultaneously, a construction permit requiring an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) can become the long pole in the tent. A 2020 review found that the average time required for Federal agencies to complete an EIS between 2010-2018 was about 4.5 years; with the NRC taking on average ~3.6 years (40 EISs completed).
•Upon COL approval, we believe the construction of the physical plants could take another 3-4 years. A 2013 PNAS study surveyed fourteen experts (of which, twelve were employed by major US reactor vendors actively developing commercial SMRs) found consensus that a SMR could be built in 3 years. We cross reference this with (i) a 2019 NuScale investor presentation (Exhibit6) that budgeted 4 years for construction – although the project was subsequently canceled due to reasons we discuss below and (ii) the 2-3 years quotedby GEV as the average plant construction time for their BWRX-300 units.
•In summary, we think a developer engaged in pre-application activities in the U.S.today could, ceteris paribus for economic conditions and watertight PPAs, deliver its first SMR likely no earlier than 2030.
And likely much later. In the US. Where they have deep nuclear knowledge and experience, which still doesn’t prevent this:
Legacy nuclear plants have faced significant cost overruns and project delays. Apart from Watts Bar Unit 2, Southern Company’s Vogtle 3 and 4 are the only two reactors that have reached commercial operation since 2000 faced recurring project delays and cost overruns.
While the developers began site work in 2009 and was expected to be completed by 2016-2017, Unit 3 began commercial operation only in July 2023 and Unit 4 in April 2024.
An original budget of $14 billion ballooned to ~$31 billion of total costs.
I am sorry to be the bearer of mad news but, versus Americans, Australians are stupid.
Our complex over-government, NIMBYism, hollowed-out industry, dumded down economy, technological retardation, energy vested interests, lost skills, and corrupt policy process mean you can double and triple any and every US time and cost overrun for Australia.
Every large-scale public project is a cost and timeframe disaster and these are in technologies far easier to implement than nuclear in which we have no experience.
Australia is too fat, dumb, and corrupt for nuclear power.
