The US dollar is up and away:
AUD is in free fall though its uptrend is intact:
North Asian has fallen through the trap door:
Oil is caput:
Metals hate DXY:
Miners ouch:
EM yawn:
Junk no worries:
Yields back-up ongoing:
Stocks ATH:
The Fed minutes were less unanimous on 50bps than it appeared but it was still a “substantial majority” decision.
More importantly, tomorrow is US CPI day. I have reason to expect anything other than ongoing disinflation.
If so, it may be enough to rescue AUD from its swoon as yields roll over again.
Or we get a firmer number and markets price out more Fed easing:
My guess is on the former.
If we add the Chinese Ministry of Finance presser on Saturday, AUD looks ripe for a reversal higher in the near term.
Beyond that and into 2025, I can’t see us blasting higher barring an unexpected Chinese bazooka (I’m talking trillions of yuan for the real economy).
It’s odds-on for a hard RBA pivot in December and NZ is slashing rates.
A grind higher perhaps on a marginally better year for global growth (unless Trump wins) but hard yakka nonetheless as the iron ore ice age steadily plays out and deeper RBA cuts firm.
