Australian dollar only goes down

Advertisement

DXY is stable:

AUD only goes down, though we should note that its uptrend is still intact:

North Asia returns from whence it came:

Advertisement

Goldmania, oilmageddon:

Metals should follow the latter:

Miners struggling:

Advertisement

EM struggling:

Junk nervous:

Yields up, which is silly given oil. This trade is getting old:

Advertisement

Stocks up:

The runaway DXY is starting to register some overbought conditions:

Advertisement

And EUR the opposite:

But note that all recent data has supported this move as the US economy firmed while Europe is very weak. This is being reflected in a swing in cash rate futures.

Advertisement

If Trump 2.0 gets the nod, the trade will have to run further as tariffs land on Europe almost as much as on China.

Nothing has changed. Trump equals AUD down. Harris equals AUD up.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.