How real is the Iran oil threat?

Monday 7 October 2024

Not very, in my view. But Goldman offers some scenarios.

Brent crude oil prices have risen 10% to $78/bbl since Tuesday as the market reassesses the risk of disruptions to oil production in the Middle East following Tuesday’s strikes on Israel.

Under our assumption of no major supply disruption, we continue to expect Brent to trade in the $70-85 range, and forecast an average price of $77/bbl for 2024 Q4 and $76/bbl for 2025.

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.