A night without significant economic data or other macro cataylsts has seen risk markets pull back across the complex, with only tech stocks leading the NASDAQ slightly higher while the USD continued its surge against the undollars. Euro and the Australian dollar were hammered yet again, with the former almost breaking below the 1.08 level while the latter is dicing with the 66 cent level.
US bond markets also sold off with 10 year Treasury yields up more than 12 points to almost break the 4.2% level while Brent crude stabilised somewhat but still looks weak right on the $74USD per barrel level. Gold technically failed to make a new daily high but its still right up there at the $2720USD per ounce level.
Looking at markets from yesterday’s session in Asia, where mainland Chinese share markets were flat with the Shanghai Composite up initially on the rate cut before swinging to no change at the close while the Hang Seng Index went the other way to lose more than 1% to finish at 20451 points.
The Hang Seng Index daily chart shows how short term resistance was finally being pushed away with a huge breakout above the 19000 point level that then set up for a run at the 20000 level in the response to PBOC stimulus. Price action is again bunching up at the 20000 point level setting up for another potential breakdown:
Meanwhile Japanese stock markets were dead flat with the Nikkei 225 unchanged at 38954 points.
Price action had been indicating a rounding top on the daily chart with daily momentum retracing away from overbought readings with the breakout last month above the 40000 point level almost in full remission. Yen volatility remains a problem here, with a sustained return above the 38000 point level from May/June possibly on the cards as positive momentum is building. Futures are somewhat unsettled but not yet indicating another pullback:
Australian stocks were the best performers in the region as the ASX200 advanced nearly 0.8% to close at 8344 points.
SPI futures however are looking to take all that back with a 0.8% loss due to the wobbly sessions on Wall Street overnight. The daily chart pattern was potentially signalling a top as short term price action suggests a pause at least with momentum retracing from overbought status, however the medium term picture still looks bullish:
European markets failed to rebound following the high on the German DAX on Friday night, gapping over the weekend as the Eurostoxx 50 Index closed nearly 0.9% lower to remain below the 5000 point level, finishing at 4941 points.
The daily chart shows price action off trend after breaching the early December 4600 point highs with daily momentum retracing well into an oversold phase. This was looking to turn into a larger breakout with support at the 4900 point level quite firm with resistance just unable to breach the 5000 point barrier. Price had previously cleared the 4700 local resistance level as it seeks to return to the previous highs as momentum was picking up here but the lower Euro is not yet helping:
Wall Street just can’t get back on track with a series of scratch sessions overnight although the NASDAQ managed to finish 0.2% higher while the S&P500 closed a few points lower at 5853 points.
The four hourly chart illustrates the series of breakouts since the early September lows as Fed signalling is doing its thing. Price action had a small breakout on the previous NFP print but the sequential hurricanes and Middle East tensions took a toll before CPI/PPI volatility is swinging back higher again. This was looking extremely bullish as we barrel into the end of the election cycle but the volatility is pulling back as momentum remains neutral:
Currency markets continued to be dominated by USD strength amid the geopolitical strife and lack of economic catalysts as traders swing around on Fedspeak instead following last week’s cut by the ECB. This has only helped King Dollar squeeze Euro lower and lower, again almost cracking below the 1.08 handle overnight.
The union currency had been structurally supportive before the Fed meeting and US jobs report but a double plunge indicated more weakness in the short term as momentum collapsed into the oversold zone with a breakdown of short term ATR support as well. Overhead resistance has now moved to the 1.11 level in the short term with any breaks above the 1.10 level likely temporary as the 1.09 level has broken down here:
A stronger USD has kept the USDJPY elevated as it builds above the 150 level into a new high late this morning.
Momentum had gotten very oversold following the break of the bearish rising wedge pattern and I thought this could be a dead cat bounce with another return to the 140 level but that was nullified with this reversal potentially having more legs in the coming sessions so watch for the crossing of the 150 level as a harbinger of more to come:
The Australian dollar is still bound at short and medium term support after dropping below the 68 cent level before last week’s NFP print but has failed to hold at the 67 cent level, falling below that level overnight.
During June the Pacific Peso hadn’t been able to take advantage of any USD weakness with momentum barely in the positive zone but that has changed in recent weeks with price action finally getting out of the mid 66 cent level that acted as a point of control. This no longer looks like a bottoming action with momentum clearly oversold and ready for more downside here:
Oil markets are still high in volatility but its all downside at the moment as Brent crude was contained at the $74USD per barrel level overnight in a follow up move to the previous session.
After breaking out above the $83 level last month, price action had stalled above the $90 level awaiting new breakouts as daily momentum waned and then retraced back to neutral settings. Daily ATR support had been broken but short term momentum was only slowly getting out of negative territory, but this could set up another sharp retracement:
Gold was able to hold on to its recent record high above the $2700USD per ounce level overnight but only just failed to make a new daily high as buying exhaustion and overextended short term momentum set in.
Price action had been trying to get back to the more dominant medium term trend amid the short term confusion and volatility around the US CPI print and is now accelerating in confidence despite the higher USD with the $2700 level now the new support zone:
Glossary of Acronyms and Technical Analysis Terms:
ATR: Average True Range – measures the degree of price volatility averaged over a time period
ATR Support/Resistance: a ratcheting mechanism that follows price below/above a trend, that if breached shows above average volatility
CCI: Commodity Channel Index: a momentum reading that calculates current price away from the statistical mean or “typical” price to indicate overbought (far above the mean) or oversold (far below the mean)
Low/High Moving Average: rolling mean of prices in this case, the low and high for the day/hour which creates a band around the actual price movement
FOMC: Federal Open Market Committee, monthly meeting of Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy (setting interest rates)
DOE: US Department of Energy
Uncle Point: or stop loss point, a level at which you’ve clearly been wrong on your position, so cry uncle and get out/wrong on your position, so cry uncle and get out!