Overnight saw the Canadian central bank cut rates by 50bps, helping the USD higher as the release of the latest Biege Book and US home sales data continued King Dollar’s uptrend against all the other major currencies. Euro continued its breakdown with Wall Street having a steep selloff near the close as risk markets start to get anxious leading up to the US election in early November. The Australian dollar failed to get back above the 67 cent level.
US bond markets also sold off with 10 year Treasury yields up more than 3 points to break the 4.2% level while Brent crude pulled back slightly to get back to the $75USD per barrel level. Gold had a slight pause as it remains around the $2750USD per ounce level.
Looking at markets from yesterday’s session in Asia, where mainland Chinese share markets eventually finished higher going into the close with the Shanghai Composite up 0.5% to just cross the 3300 point level while the Hang Seng Index was up more than 1% to 20457 points.
The Hang Seng Index daily chart shows how short term resistance was finally being pushed away with a huge breakout above the 19000 point level that then set up for a run at the 20000 level in the response to PBOC stimulus. Price action is again bunching up at the 20000 point level setting up for another potential breakdown:
Meanwhile Japanese stock markets are pulling back again on BOJ concerns with the Nikkei 225 down more than 0.8% to 38104 points.
Price action had been indicating a rounding top on the daily chart with daily momentum retracing away from overbought readings with the breakout last month above the 40000 point level almost in full remission. Yen volatility remains a problem here, with a sustained return above the 38000 point level from May/June possibly on the cards as positive momentum is building. Futures are somewhat unsettled and are indicating another pullback:
Australian stocks finished on a flat note as the ASX200 closed just 0.1% higher at 8216 points.
SPI futures however are down nearly 0.3% due to the falls on Wall Street overnight but it could gap even lower. The daily chart pattern was potentially signalling a top as short term price action suggests a pause at least with momentum retracing from overbought status, however the medium term picture still looks bullish but this rollover could extend further so watch the 8100 point zone closely:
European markets are still struggling with mixed sessions across the continent as the Eurostoxx 50 Index closed nearly 0.4% lower to remain below the 5000 point level, finishing at 4922 points.
The daily chart shows price action off trend after breaching the early December 4600 point highs with daily momentum retracing well into an oversold phase. This was looking to turn into a larger breakout with support at the 4900 point level quite firm with resistance just unable to breach the 5000 point barrier. Price had previously cleared the 4700 local resistance level as it seeks to return to the previous highs as momentum was picking up here but the lower Euro is not yet helping:
Wall Street still can’t get back on track and fell sharply towards the close as the NASDAQ finished 1.6% lower while the S&P500 lost nearly 1% to close at 5797 points.
The four hourly chart illustrates the series of breakouts since the early September lows as Fed signalling is doing its thing. Price action had a small breakout on the previous NFP print but the sequential hurricanes and Middle East tensions took a toll before CPI/PPI volatility is swinging back higher again. This was looking extremely bullish as we barrel into the end of the election cycle but the volatility is pulling back as momentum now goes into negative mode:
Currency markets continued to be dominated by USD strength despite some weaker US economic prints. Euro was squeezed lower and lower, this time staying below the 1.08 handle as the medium term downtrend firms up.
The union currency had been structurally supportive before the Fed meeting and US jobs report but a double plunge indicated more weakness in the short term as momentum collapsed into the oversold zone with a breakdown of short term ATR support as well. Overhead resistance has now moved to the 1.09 level in the short term with the potential to make a run for parity here:
A stronger USD has kept the USDJPY elevated as it previously built above the 151 level with a breakout above the 153 level getting a little too far ahead of itself in late trade overnight.
Momentum had gotten very oversold following the break of the bearish rising wedge pattern and I thought this could be a dead cat bounce with another return to the 140 level but that was nullified with this reversal potentially having more legs in the coming sessions so watch for the crossing of the 150 level as a harbinger of more to come:
The Australian dollar is still bound at short and medium term support after dropping below the 68 cent level before last week’s NFP print but has failed to hold at the 67 cent level, pushing sharply below that level overnight.
During June the Pacific Peso hadn’t been able to take advantage of any USD weakness with momentum barely in the positive zone but that has changed in recent weeks with price action finally getting out of the mid 66 cent level that acted as a point of control. This no longer looks like a bottoming action with momentum clearly oversold and ready for more downside here:
Oil markets are still high in volatility but couldn’t manage to hold on to a dead cat bounce as Brent crude retraced back towards the $75USD per barrel level overnight.
After breaking out above the $83 level last month, price action had stalled above the $90 level awaiting new breakouts as daily momentum waned and then retraced back to neutral settings. Daily ATR support had been broken but short term momentum was only slowly getting out of negative territory, but this could set up another sharp retracement if the $70-72 zone is broken:
Gold was able to barely hold on to its recent record high above the $2700USD per ounce level overnight with the stronger USD across the board pushing the shiny metal below the $2750 level.
Price action had been trying to get back to the more dominant medium term trend amid the short term confusion and volatility around the US CPI print and is now accelerating in confidence despite the higher USD with the $2700 level now the new support zone:
Glossary of Acronyms and Technical Analysis Terms:
ATR: Average True Range – measures the degree of price volatility averaged over a time period
ATR Support/Resistance: a ratcheting mechanism that follows price below/above a trend, that if breached shows above average volatility
CCI: Commodity Channel Index: a momentum reading that calculates current price away from the statistical mean or “typical” price to indicate overbought (far above the mean) or oversold (far below the mean)
Low/High Moving Average: rolling mean of prices in this case, the low and high for the day/hour which creates a band around the actual price movement
FOMC: Federal Open Market Committee, monthly meeting of Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy (setting interest rates)
DOE: US Department of Energy
Uncle Point: or stop loss point, a level at which you’ve clearly been wrong on your position, so cry uncle and get out/wrong on your position, so cry uncle and get out!