Net overseas migration continues to retrace in New Zealand as recession-hit Kiwis escape to Australia.
As illustrated below by Justin Fabo at Antipodean Macro, net migration into New Zealand has plunged from the October 2023 peak:
There was an annual net migration gain of 53,800 in the year to August 2024, down sharply from the peak of 136,400 in the year to October 2023.
Departures of New Zealand citizens remain elevated despite declining from the recent peak:
In the year to August 2024, 56,100 net New Zealand citizens left New Zealand, up from 38,615 net departures the previous year:
There was a provisional net migration loss of 29,900 people to Australia in the year to March 2024. This was made up of 17,000 migrant arrivals from Australia to New Zealand and 46,900 migrant departures from New Zealand to Australia.
In the March 2024 year, 53% of New Zealand citizen migrant departures were to Australia.
A key reason why Kiwis are moving to Australia en masse is that our unemployment rate of 4.2% is lower than New Zealand’s at 4.6%:
The lower unemployment rate in Australia contrasts with the period from 2014 to 2018, when Australia’s unemployment was on average 0.7 percentage points higher than New Zealand’s.
New Zealand is likewise experiencing a much deeper per capita recession than Australia:
While the Australian economy is in poor health, New Zealand’s is considerably worse.
As a result, Kiwis are flocking into Australia, counterbalanced by migrant arrivals from developing countries.
