Retail sales bounce reduces chance of interest rate cuts

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The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released retail sales data for August, which jumped by a strong 0.7% over the month to be 3.1% higher year-on-year:

Retail sales August

The result smashed economists’ expectations of a 0.4% monthly increase.

As shown in the table above, the rise was driven by durable goods sales, which increased by 0.8% over the month.

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The following table shows that Australians spent up on liquor, clothing, and recreational goods:

Retail sales breakdown

In its commentary, the ABS noted that “retail spending was boosted this month by warmer-than-usual weather for this time of year”.

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“This year was the warmest August on record since 1910, which saw more spending on items typically purchased in spring. This included summer clothing, liquor, outdoor dining, hardware, gardening items, camping goods and outdoor equipment”.

“The lift in turnover from the warmer weather was also boosted by higher discretionary spending as consumers took advantage of Father’s Day sales events during the month”.

The unseasonably warm weather had a particular impact in Victoria, where retail sales rose by 0.9% over the month:

Retail sales by state

The strength of the result lessens the likelihood that the RBA will cut rates before the end of the year, as it suggests that consumer demand might be strengthening.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.