The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released labour force data for September, which was unambiguously strong.
The participation rate and employment-to-population rates edged to fresh record highs, while the unemployment rate ticked lower to 4.1% (from 4.2%).
As shown above, 64,000 jobs were created in September in seasonally adjusted terms, well above consensus forecasts of a 25,000 increase.
Most jobs created were full-time (51,600), way above the consensus forecast (-3,100 expected).
The massive growth in NDIS-related jobs, which has been compared to the mining boom in its impact, continues to drive the labour market.
The following chart from Alex Joiner at IFM Investors shows Australia’s unemployment rate versus the RBA’s forecasts:
As noted by Joiner on Twitter (X), “there’s no pressure on the RBA, from the labour market at least, to ease policy anytime soon”.
The decision to cut rates will need to be based solely on underlying CPI inflation “sustainably” returning back to the RBA’s target.
