There is no gas solution other than breaking the cartel

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Why must Australia have these endlesss debates about idiotic non-solutions while the real answer is tried, true and obvious:

BlueScope has called for the introduction of an east coast gas reservation to ensure domestic users are adequately supplied ahead of a looming regional supply crunch.

Australia’s east coast is awash with gas, but it is committed to export markets, and the country should prioritise domestic heavy users as it will achieve sizeable emission reductions.

Of course, we should. We need to hold back about 15% of East Coast exports to stabilise local supply and prices.

But no, here comes the scaremongering cartel:

Breaking export contracts from Queensland would be extremely contentious. Exporters such as Mark Hatfield, managing of Chevron Australia, said even talk of breaking export contracts is already causing concern among some of Canberra’s closest regional allies.

“If Japanese or Korean buyers think the contracts they signed to ensure their energy security are at risk, that would cause concern,” Mr Hatfield told the energy conference.

In short, it’s already a sovereign risk issue. So fix it once and for all.

Or not:

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Mark Collette, managing director of EnergyAustralia, on Monday warned Australians are reaching the threshold of what many can afford to pay.

“We are nearing the limit of affordability,” Mr Collette told an energy conference in Sydney.

In a bid to bolster supplies, the Coalition has said it will include gas in a revised Capacity Investment Scheme that pays gas power plants to be ready should there be insufficient supplies of renewables.

It’s another cartel scam:

Origin Energy CEO Frank Calabria and his counterparts at EnergyAustralia and AGL Energy, Mark Collette and Damien Nicks, have all emphasised how important gas power is to support increased renewables in the system.

But Mr Kean suggested that those parties wanting gas to be included in the CIS were pushing for government to underwrite baseload gas power generation rather than just peaking power, a move that would impose very high costs on energy consumers.

“It seems to me that people calling for gas to be included in the capacity investment scheme are trying to stop renewables,” he said.

“That just seems like a recipe for much higher electricity bills for Australian consumers, and they’re bills that we can’t afford to pay.”

The ABC also blathered about every solution under the sun this week, except the one that matters, breaking the export cartel:

  • gas imports will be very expensive and controlled by the cartel;
  • more local supply will be controlled by the cartel and it will juggle its portfolio of assets to ensure local prices stay high;
  • piecemeal reservation of new local projects likewise.

There is only one answer: addressing the source of the problem:

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  • Break export contracts for 200Pj of East Coast gas. In a week, it will be forgotten.
  • Force the gas export cartel to provide it cheaply by activating the ADGSM.
  • Build out southern storage and fill it with QLD gas in the off-season for winter use.

Gas peakers will then be built by private interests to support the energy transition cheaply.

No solution works unless or until you break the export cartel.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.