This is how immigration used to managed in Australia. Goldman on the US labour market.
Like many investors, we have been sharply focused recently on the race between job growth and labor supply growth.
We expect labor supply growth to slow substantially but remain elevated enough that 150-180k jobs per month will be needed to stabilize the unemployment rate. Our estimate of trend job growth dipped noticeably below that range in August but rebounded to 196k in September, and our job growth tracker—which summarizes survey and hard data—is only slightly lower.
…The labor market remains a bit softer than before the pandemic, and measures of labor market tightness imply that the risks to the unemployment rate are still two-sided.
But the pullback in the unemployment rate in September offers preliminary support to the diagnosis that the earlier increase was largely caused by the temporary challenge of absorbing a surge in immigrant labor supply, which is now slowing.
This interpretation is consistent with the outsized contribution of new entrants, immigrants, and young people to the rise in the unemployment rate.
While average hourly earnings accelerated, we still see little risk from wage and price pressures.
Our broader wage growth tracker has continued to decline, and our wage survey leading indicator points to further moderation to a rate thatmight be a touch lower than consistent with 2% inflation.
This is precisely how Australia used to manage its immigration program – for the benefit of its citizens.
It would be ramped up during cyclical booms and pulled back during busts.
That is, until 2013 when the end of the mining boom was dealt with not by reducing immigration but by ramping it up.
Ever since, a bizarre alliance of corporations and the fake left have described any move to cut immigration as economically destructive and racist.
The end result is that the US has attracted the skills it needed without smashing wages growth, nor creating the housing and infrastructure shortages that have choked Australian productivity and national income nearly to death.
This is not rocket science. But that’s Australia’s corrupt political economy for you.
The right only wants to placate a lazy ASX100 while the left if obsessed with woke garbage.
The media is an immigration-led property whorebag so there is no pressure to change it.
The end result is the crashing of real per capita incomes while the US powers ahead (this chart has continued the trends since 2023):
Australia today manages immigration to the benefit of vested interests while its citizens suffer from it.
