Victoria is an economic disaster zone

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Victoria is an economic disaster zone.

Data from the Australian Securities & Investment Commission (ASIC) shows that the average number of new businesses registered per 1,000 existing firms in Victoria during the year to September was 80.5.

This compares with an average of 99.8 in South Australia, 98.2 in Queensland, 95.3 in New South Wales, and 93.4 in Western Australia.

New company registrations

Independent economist Saul Eslake says factors such as lack of confidence in starting up a business in Victoria or the state government’s tax hikes may be to blame.

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“At face value, it is suggestive of a lack of confidence in starting up a business in Victoria. It could also be a response successive waves of tax increases”, Eslake said.

Shadow treasurer Brad Rowswell says Victoria has the highest business taxes of any state, which is having an impact on investment decisions.

Former NAB chief executive and BHP director Ross McEwan agreed, stating that “Victoria has got to make up its mind on how much it can tax people, particularly businesses”.

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The data comes as Victoria is leading the nation in debt, has the lowest credit rating, and has been warned by the world’s two largest credit rating agencies that it faces further downgrades if it does not bring debt levels under control.

State government debt

The rising state debt levels has seen interest payments soar, draining Victorian taxpayers:

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Victorian budget interest costs

CSL chairman Brian McNamee is scathing of the Victorian government:

“Without doubt, it’s very obvious that we’ve been not well governed for a long time from a financial perspective, that is clear”, he said .

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“The government spending has been too high, and many projects have been poorly evaluated and shouldn’t have been done; and clearly the No. 1 skill would appear to be recruiting more people to work in the bureaucracy”.

Indeed, one of the reasons Victoria is drowning in debt and faces another credit rating downgrade is that its public sector workforce ballooned by 59% over the 15 years to 2022-23, far exceeding the state’s population growth of 29%.

Growth in the public sector

Source: The Australian

Victoria’s public servant wage bill increased by 152% over the same 15-year period, far outpacing the rest of Australia:

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Growth in public sector wage bill

Source: The Australian

As of May 2024, the average full-time weekly earnings of a Victorian public servant were $2,130, about $48 more than in New South Wales ($2,082).

The average total earnings of a Victorian public servant ($1,767) also exceeded those of New South Wales ($1,757).

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Yet, despite the lavish spending on bureaucrats, Victoria’s unemployment rate is easily the highest in the nation:

Unemployment rates

Victoria is the epitome of a Ponzi economy, wholly reliant on extreme immigration-driven population growth and government spending.

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Victorian population growth

Meanwhile, individual living standards are collapsing amid the endless population crush, falling productivity, and ballooning debt.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.