Capex lifts in Q3, but outlook softens

Belinda Allen, Senior Economist at CBA, dissects today’s Capex release from the ABS.

Key Points:

The total volume of capex rose by 1.1% in Q3 24.
Mining investment fell by 1.9%, while non-mining investment rose by 2.3% in the September quarter.
The 4th estimate of nominal capex plans for 2024 was $A178.2bn, a downgrade compared to the 3rd estimate.
The pipeline of capex plans remains large but we have now seen two consecutive downgrades of intentions for 24/25.
The lift in nominal investment intentions now sits at just under 3%.

Overview:

The capex report for the September quarter was a mixed bag. The volume of capex work done in the quarter rose by 1.1%, roughly in line with our forecast (0.9%) and consensus (1.0%).

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About the author

Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.