Coalition: Australia’s migration compact has “snapped”

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Tuesday’s monthly arrivals and departures figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revealed that a record 393,874 people arrived in Australia on a net permanent or long-term basis in the first nine months of 2024.

Net permanent and long-term arrivals

While net arrivals have slowed since March, the figures suggest that net overseas migration into Australia remains hot.

Immigration is also shaping up as a battleground issue leading up to next year’s federal election.

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Coalition frontbencher Bridget McKenzie told The Australian Financial Review Infrastructure Summit on Monday that the long-standing bipartisan approval of high immigration was over.

“That compact with the Australian people has snapped”, Senator McKenzie said.

She argued that first-home buyers, renters, and people with mortgages had suffered from mass immigration for the benefit of universities, big business, the federal budget, and the union movement.

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McKenzie also argued that mass immigration had masked Australia’s productivity decline.

Immigration vs productivity

“[Current policy] suits universities that have been transformed from pure education centres to business enterprises in order to survive”, she said.

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“It suits many big businesses who see immigration as a cheaper, faster alternative to seriously engaging with educating and training domestic students in order to get skilled local labour”.

These statements by Senator McKenzie are music to my ears.

Opinion poll after opinion poll has shown that Australians have never supported mass immigration and a ‘Big Australia’ because it is harmful to their quality of life.

Housing, infrastructure, and services have been crush-loaded. Australians have been forced to live in high-rise shoe boxes. Perpetual capital shallowing has destroyed the nation’s productivity. And the natural environment and water supplies are becoming increasingly strained.

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Capital shallowing

However, politicians, policymakers, and the mainstream media have disregarded Australian voters’ preferences for lower immigration.

If the Coalition is serious on this matter, it should promise to hold a plebiscite on Australia’s future population size if elected. These results could then be used to determine Australia’s immigration intake.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.