With Wall Street closed for an uncomfortable Thanksgiving it was all eyes on European shares to provide risk markets with a lead and while they bounced back after three days of downturns, it was modest at best as macro concerns about oil, war and the upcoming trade war continue to weigh. USD remains somewhat weak against most of the majors with Euro holding above the 1.05 level while the Australian dollar remains under pressure but managed to just push up through the 65 handle.
US bond markets were closed for Thanksgiving while oil markets trading lightly as well as Brent crude futures indicate no real move around the $72USD per barrel level. Gold remains under the pump following its own retracement but was largely unchanged at the $2640USD per ounce level.
Looking at markets from yesterday’s session in Asia, where mainland Chinese share markets are faltering after their recent strong rebound with the Shanghai Composite down 0.4% and again below the 3300 point level while the Hang Seng Index is off by more than 1%, closing at 19366 points. The Hang Seng Index daily chart shows how short term resistance was finally being pushed away with a huge breakout above the 19000 point level that then set up for a run at the 20000 level in the response to PBOC stimulus. Price action is again bunching setting up for another potential breakdown if short term support breaks:
Japanese stock markets are seeing a better return after a weakening Yen throughout the session with the Nikkei 225 closing 0.7% higher to 38427 points.
Price action had been indicating a rounding top on the daily chart with daily momentum retracing away from overbought readings with the breakout last month above the 40000 point level almost in full remission. Yen volatility remains a problem here, with a sustained return above the 38000 point level from May/June possibly on the cards but positive momentum is not yet building.
Australian stocks had a better session as the ASX200 closed 0.4% higher at 8444 points.
SPI futures are down more than 0.2% due to the lack of a lead on Wall Street overnight because of the Thanksgiving break. The daily chart pattern was potentially signalling a top as short term price action suggests a return to the pre election uptrend, with the lower Australian dollar helping as we head straight into a Santa Rally but daily momentum remains at extreme overbought levels:
European markets finally rebounded but it was modest across the continent overnight with the Eurostoxx 50 Index closing just 0.5% higher to finish at the 4758 point level.
This was looking to turn into a larger breakout with support at the 4900 point level quite firm with resistance just unable to breach the 5000 point barrier. Price had previously cleared the 4700 local resistance level as it seeks to return to the previous highs but momentum is still oversold despite the positive Friday finish with price action still below previous support:
Wall Street was closed for Thanksgiving but S&P futures were up modestly to hang around the magical 6000 point level as the daily trend remains largely intact from the post election result.
Price action is still looking extremely positive as all the stops will literally be taken out of business regulation, taxation, competition etc in a new dominating GOP Congress with the sky the limit here for big business – and with the Fed cutting rates, add more to the punchbowl. Watch short term support here at the 5940 point level however:
Currency markets are reducing in volatility somewhat with USD still on the back foot as Euro stabilised around the 1.05 handle overnight following its volatile Friday night session.
The union currency had been pushed higher after remaining oversold for weeks in a dominant downtrend, then cleared overhead resistance at the mid 1.08 level in the lead up to the election. I still contend we are still likely on our way back to parity as traders start to price in the now very unclear future for the continent so watch out for this to turn into a dead cat bounce:
The USDJPY pair is still in full retracement mode after testing the 154 handle on the weekend gap as Yen accelerated its strength to cross below the previous weekly low and finish just below the 152 level this morning.
Short term momentum remains quite negative with price action unable to make new short term highs so this is setting up for a further breakdown here below the 151 level in the coming sessions, but watch for a recovery bounce:
The Australian dollar is facing more pressure on the upcoming trade war, although last night it was able to get back above the 65 cent level in what looks like a relatively weak move.
The Pacific Peso could come under more pressure here on reweighting risks and the lack of action from the RBA as it wants to hold through to Feb/March next year, and this move had been already with a retracement back to the 64 handle most likely next:
Oil markets remain volatile with the tariff news and post US election tensions and potential peace talks/ceasefires in the Middle East as Brent crude was again stuck below the $73USD per barrel level overnight as the daily chart pattern continues to tighten like a spring.
Short term momentum remains in negative territory as medium term price action still supports a downtrend with my contention of another sharp retracement forthcoming if the $70-72 zone is not defended:
Gold remains under pressure following its swift selloff down below the $2700USD per ounce level from Friday night, but is still holing the line overnight with almost no change, finishing just above the $2640 level.
Price action had been accelerating in confidence as new levels of support were being created for the shiny metal regardless of USD strength but this pullback and rebound both are fighting too much around the $2700 zone so I’m skeptical of a new breakout here:
Glossary of Acronyms and Technical Analysis Terms:
ATR: Average True Range – measures the degree of price volatility averaged over a time period
ATR Support/Resistance: a ratcheting mechanism that follows price below/above a trend, that if breached shows above average volatility
CCI: Commodity Channel Index: a momentum reading that calculates current price away from the statistical mean or “typical” price to indicate overbought (far above the mean) or oversold (far below the mean)
Low/High Moving Average: rolling mean of prices in this case, the low and high for the day/hour which creates a band around the actual price movement
FOMC: Federal Open Market Committee, monthly meeting of Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy (setting interest rates)
DOE: US Department of Energy
Uncle Point: or stop loss point, a level at which you’ve clearly been wrong on your position, so cry uncle and get out/wrong on your position, so cry uncle and get out!