Goldman with the bad news.
Goldman now sees gross domestic product rising 1.8% next year, compared with 2% seen previously, reflecting the anticipated impact on exports from Australia’s biggest trading partner, according to its Australia and New Zealand 2025 Outlook, released Monday. President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to implement 60% tariffs on exports from China as he seeks to protect US firms and jobs.
Goldman is being generous.
Check out where Australia sits in the tariff impact league table versus its major markets.
All of the major steel consumers are at the wrong end of the tariffs.
Stimulus offsets will help but China, in particular, is a worry.
I expect the hit to bulk commodities will increase as the year goes on.
With roughly 1.5% immigration, and more if Labor retains power, we will barely crawl out of the per capita recession.
