Statistics New Zealand released data showing that Kiwis are leaving in droves to escape the worst recession in decades.
Annual net permanent and long-term migration inflows fell to 44,900 annually in September, the lowest since January 2023.
September saw a net permanent and long-term (PLT) inflow of only 2,310 persons in seasonally-adjusted terms, with the three-month average net inflow falling to only 2,300.
This was the lowest quarterly result in two years and equivalent to an annualised pace of under 28,000.
Strong outflows of New Zealand citizens continued as Kiwis sought greener pastures offshore.
The year to September saw just under 79,700 Kiwis depart the country, just shy of record highs. Taking New Zealand citizen arrivals into account (24,900), a net 54,700 citizens departed, close to a record high.
India, China and the Philippines remained the largest sources of non-New Zealand citizen arrivals.
Total permanent and long-term arrivals remained high at 153,000 annually in September, but the annual pace is cooling. Meanwhile, migration departures of non-New citizens are rising (53,300 annually in September).
Major bank ASB expects net migration inflows into New Zealand to slow to around 30,000 persons by year end, but inflows could fall faster.
Statistics New Zealand also noted that there were 46,900 migrant departures from New Zealand to Australia in the year to March 2024, partly offset by 17,000 migrant arrivals from Australia to New Zealand.
This resulted in a provisional net migration loss of around 30,000 people to Australia in the year ended March 2024.
“The provisional net migration loss to Australia in the year ended March 2024 was made up of a net loss of 28,600 New Zealand citizens, and a net loss of 1,400 non-New Zealand citizens”, Statistics New Zealand said.
“This compares with a net migration loss to Australia of 18,700 in the year ended March 2023, made up of a net loss of 18,900 New Zealand citizens and a net gain of 200 non-New Zealand citizens”.
“In the March 2024 year, 54% of New Zealand citizen migrant departures were to Australia”, Statistics New Zealand said.
Australia is experiencing a less severe per capita recession than Australia. Australia’s unemployment rate (4.1%) is also significantly lower than New Zealand’s (4.8%).
A key reason why New Zealand’s economy and labour market have weakened more than Australia’s is because it hasn’t experienced massive NDIS-induced growth in healthcare and social assistance jobs:
As shown above, Australia recorded a massive increase in the share of healthcare and social assistance jobs in the two years to 2024. In comparison, New Zealand’s healthcare and social assistance jobs recorded no increase.
