Charlie McElligott at Nomura on a post-election melt-up.
Equities are resilient after last week’s mini-wobble and with “Vol leak” pressures building, while USTs are rallying significantly alongside US Dollar being hit lower….as “Harris (Gridlock)” is trending ‘hard’ in final polling, reversing some of that past month’s-worth of “Trump (Red Sweep)” hedging –premium, which is seeing nervous and meaningful “unwind” the day ahead of the US Presidential Election
People are looking at the updated signs of a sudden lurch in poll “herding” over these final days in the direction of Harris, which then with the WILD Selzer Iowa release for Harris over the weekend and Mitchell Research’s shock adjustments in Michigan Republican polling (“…it seems clear that we are under sampling women, African Americans, and the City of Detroit”…as they shift Harris and Slotkin to leads), leading to what is seemingly a sudden awakening that 1) it is Democrats which may have been underestimated as the “silent voter” this time around, and lending further credence to the rational idea that 2) pollsters have been overcompensating for their GOP polling error and evidencing “scar tissue” from the prior two cycles of “off-target” calls…in-turn, potentially then generating a “false optic” for Trump / GOP Election +++ probabilities along the way, in this sudden “re-think”
