Victoria is as broken as its crumbling roads

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In April, former Treasury economist Stephen Anthony summed up the Victorian government’s management of the state as follows:

“Victoria is on a suicide mission to record borrowing, just as global interest rates are about to hit 5%”.

“Potholes can’t get filled, emergency departments can’t afford clean linen, primary schools can’t fix heaters”.

“Things are about to get very ugly”.

Anthony’s statement came amid a surge in state debt. The two main credit rating agencies—S&P and Moody’s—then warned Victoria that if it did not contain its debt, it would face further downgrades.

State government debt

Anthony’s statement that “potholes can’t get filled” was not hyperbole. According to the Herald-Sun, Victoria has reduced regional road repairs by 95% to save money.

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The latest Victorian Department of Transport and Planning annual report reveals that just 422,000 square metres of regional roads were rehabilitated or resurfaced in 2023-24, down from nine million metres a year earlier. That amounted to a 95% decrease.

“It means maintenance works were completed on road areas the size of 21 MCGs last year, compared to 450 MCGs the year prior”, noted reporter Shannon Deery.

The report also shows that only 39% of metropolitan projects and 69% of regional projects are being finished on time.

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The government cut its spending on road resurfacing from $201.4 million in the previous year to just $37.6 million.

The release of the report comes as research by the RACV reveals poor road conditions have now overtaken dangerous driver behaviour as the biggest danger across the Victorian road network.

“A 95% reduction in essential maintenance is just going to mean our already bad roads will get worse”, noted Shadow Minister for Roads and Road Safety, Danny O’Brien.

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“Victorians are already putting up with dodgy roads wherever they drive – regional Victoria, the suburbs and even some of our freeways”.

“The government’s own survey last year found 91% of the roads it surveyed were in poor or very poor condition – something all Victorian motorists are well aware of”, he said.

Earlier this year, Justin Bartlett, managing director of VSA Roads, regional Victoria’s largest supplier of quarrying bitumen, warned that Victoria’s roads are deteriorating at an alarming rate, are no longer resilient, and every major rain event will result in additional potholes.

He also stated that a lack of maintenance will result in “an exponential spend down the track”.

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“We’ve already seen an exponential increase in potholes and its only going to get worse”, he said.

The above is a harbinger of Victoria’s future. The state’s population is officially projected to balloon by 4.2 million people over the next 32 years.

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At the same time, the lion’s share of Victoria’s infrastructure budget will be blown on the $200 billion Suburban Rail Loop to nowhere, leaving little money for anything else.

The upshot is that Victorian living standards will crumble alongside the state’s roads.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.