Australia ‘caught-up’ on immigration. What about housing?

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Earlier this month, the ANU’s chief immigration propagandist, Alan Gamlen, claimed that “by March 2024, Net Overseas Migration (NOM) had added 31,000 fewer people to the population than it would have if migration had stayed at 2019 levels”.

“Basically, NOM added 168,000 fewer people to Australia’s population between 2019 and 2024 than if NOM had followed its long-term 2013-2019 trend”.

“What’s clear is that Australia has experienced less migration since the onset of the pandemic, not more”, Gamlen claimed.

Stephen Saunders has comprehensively debunked Gamlen’s shameless propaganda, which doesn’t even pass the most basic high school scrutiny.

Between Q3 2013 and Q3 2019, Australia’s annual net overseas migration averaged 223,200.

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Between Q3 2019 and Q3 2024, Australia’s annual net overseas migration averaged 272,620.

Clearly, Gamlen needs help understanding math. Australia has experienced more migration since the pandemic, not less.

Historical NOM
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Moreover, CBA analysis shows that Australia’s population growth has exceeded the pre-pandemic trend. Population growth will continue to grow faster than the trend as net overseas migration remains historically high.

Population trend

“The Australian population has now returned to its long-term trend growth, meaning that the loss of population growth from the closing of the borders has been fully recovered”, noted CBA. “Indeed, around 30,000 more people call Australia home than the trend would have suggested”.

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“It is likely the population will move further above the trend line in coming quarters until net overseas migration numbers return to its pre-pandemic trend”.

NOM Trend

Sadly, Australia’s housing construction is far from catching up to the effects of the pandemic, with construction rates tracking near decade lows.

Housing supply and demand
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This gaping mismatch between housing demand (immigration) and supply has delivered the rental crisis.

Asking rents

Hilariously, Alan Gamlen has called for a national body to prevent immigration misinformation:

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Alan Gamlen misinformation

Clearly, he is the main person spreading said misinformation.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.