Last night saw a big move higher in USD due to more Fedspeak around another cut in December but also due to higher manufacturing demand from the latest ISM print. Tech stocks led the way on Wall Street while European shares also surged on the lower Euro.
The USD is pushing aside all the undollars except Yen in the wake of the tariff threats with Euro breaking back down to the 1.05 level as the Australian dollar remained under pressure as it can’t get back above the 65 handle.
US Treasury 10 year yields lifted nearly 3 points to get back above the 4.2% level while oil markets continued their own retreat with Brent crude remaining below the $72USD per barrel level. Gold remains under the pump following its previous sharp retracement but was able to stabilise following the weekend gap lower at the $2630USD per ounce level.
Looking at markets from yesterday’s session in Asia, where mainland Chinese share markets are pushing higher with the Shanghai Composite up more than 1% going into the close at 3361 points while the Hang Seng Index is up just 0.2%, currently at 19452 points.
The Hang Seng Index daily chart shows how short term resistance was finally being pushed away with a huge breakout above the 19000 point level that then set up for a run at the 20000 level in the response to PBOC stimulus. Price action is again bunching setting up for another potential breakdown if short term support breaks:
Japanese stock markets are also doing relatively well with the Nikkei 225 more than 0.6% higher at 38452 points.
Price action had been indicating a rounding top on the daily chart with daily momentum retracing away from overbought readings with the breakout last month above the 40000 point level almost in full remission. Yen volatility remains a problem here, with a sustained return above the 38000 point level from May/June possibly on the cards but positive momentum is not yet building.
Australian stocks had another mixed session amid a series of positive economic prints with the ASX200 closing just 0.1% higher at 8444 points.
SPI futures are up at least 0.7% due to the very positive session on Wall Street overnight as they play catchup. The daily chart pattern was potentially signaling a top as short term price action suggests a return to the pre election uptrend, with the lower Australian dollar helping as we head straight into a Santa Rally but daily momentum remains at extreme overbought levels:
European markets continued their strong rebound with very impressive sessions across the continent led by the German DAX with the Eurostoxx 50 Index closing more than 0.8% higher to finish at 4846 points.
This was looking to turn into a larger breakout with support at the 4900 point level quite firm with resistance just unable to breach the 5000 point barrier. Price had previously cleared the 4700 local resistance level as it seeks to return to the previous highs but momentum is now getting out of oversold mode on its way back up to the previous weekly support levels:
Wall Street was relatively mixed with the headline DOW in retreat while the tech heavy NASDAQ lifting more than 1% while the S&P500 gained jus t0.3% to finish at 6048 points.
Price action is still looking extremely positive as the Trump Santa rally continues unabridged but watch short term support here at the 5940 point level however:
Currency markets are reducing in volatility somewhat with USD still on the back foot as Euro stabilised and the built further above the 1.05 handle to almost get back to the previous weekly high.
The union currency had been pushed higher after remaining oversold for weeks in a dominant downtrend, then cleared overhead resistance at the mid 1.08 level in the lead up to the election. I still contend we are still likely on our way back to parity as traders start to price in the now very unclear future for the continent so watch out for this to turn into a dead cat bounce:
The USDJPY pair is still in full retracement mode after testing the 154 handle on the previous weekend gap as Yen accelerated its strength to cross below the previous weekly low and finish just below the key 150 level this morning.
Short term momentum remains quite negative with price action unable to make new short term highs so this is setting up for a further breakdown here below the 150 level in the coming sessions, but watch for a potential recovery bounce:
The Australian dollar is facing more pressure on the upcoming trade war, although Friday night saw it built back to the its start of week position just above the 65 cent level in what I still think looks like a relatively weak move.
The Pacific Peso could come under more pressure here on reweighting risks and the lack of action from the RBA as it wants to hold through to Feb/March next year, and this move had been already with a retracement back to the 64 handle most likely next:
Oil markets remain volatile by becoming less volatile intrasession with amid post US election tensions and potential peace talks/ceasefires in the Middle East as Brent crude was again held below the $72USD per barrel level as the daily chart pattern continues to tighten like a spring.
Short term momentum remains in negative territory as medium term price action still supports a downtrend with my contention of another sharp retracement forthcoming if the $70-72 zone is not defended:
Gold also remains under pressure following its swift selloff down below the $2700USD per ounce level in previous weeks with a gap down over the weekend on the stronger USD seeing it retrace well back to the $2630 level.
Price action had been accelerating in confidence as new levels of support were being created for the shiny metal regardless of USD strength but this pullback and rebound both are fighting too much under the $2700 zone so I’m skeptical of a new breakout here:
Glossary of Acronyms and Technical Analysis Terms:
ATR: Average True Range – measures the degree of price volatility averaged over a time period
ATR Support/Resistance: a ratcheting mechanism that follows price below/above a trend, that if breached shows above average volatility
CCI: Commodity Channel Index: a momentum reading that calculates current price away from the statistical mean or “typical” price to indicate overbought (far above the mean) or oversold (far below the mean)
Low/High Moving Average: rolling mean of prices in this case, the low and high for the day/hour which creates a band around the actual price movement
FOMC: Federal Open Market Committee, monthly meeting of Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy (setting interest rates)
DOE: US Department of Energy
Uncle Point: or stop loss point, a level at which you’ve clearly been wrong on your position, so cry uncle and get out/wrong on your position, so cry uncle and get out!