Melbourne relegated to house price donkey

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According to the most recent PropTrack home price data, Melbourne has been left well behind the other major capital cities.

Since the start of the pandemic in March 2020, Melbourne dwelling prices have increased by only 16%, compared to a 41% growth across the combined capital cities:

Melbourne vs other capital cities

The following chart displays price growth across the five major capital city markets in index form:

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Major capital city dwelling values

Adelaide (80%), Brisbane (78%), and Perth (79%), lead the nation in home value growth. Sydney follows with a 39% increase, followed by Melbourne (16%) well behind.

The following table from PropTrack shows that Brisbane’s ($868,000) and Adelaide’s ($795,000) median dwelling values have risen above Melbourne’s ($792,000):

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Median dwelling values

Melbourne’s median dwelling value ($792,000) has also fallen behind the national ($800,000) and capital city ($871,000 average).

The next chart derived from Domain data also reveals that Melbourne’s median house price has fallen well below the other capital cities, making the city relatively inexpensive.

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Melbourne relative house price

The Victorian state government’s additional land taxes and penalties on property investors have undoubtedly depressed price growth.

These reforms have compelled some investors to sell, driving demand interstate.

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The approved affordability has benefited Victorian first-time home buyers, as evidenced by the state having the highest share of first home buyers in the country.

First home buyer mortgage commitments

Victorian first home buyers are also benefiting from a high number of for-sale listings, which are tracking well above the decade average.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.