Australian dollar bear shooting season begins

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DXY has begun its consolidation in earnest. Is it twin peaks as Trump turns soggy on China tariffs?

AUD bear hunting season has started. Nice little inverse head and shoulders bottom for traders to buy.

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CFTC still way short. Bullish!

Lead boots up and away!

Gold grotesquely overbought but at least it has a falling DXY. Commods doing a Costanza.

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Big miners meh.

EM meh.

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Junkus polunkus.

Yields still skeptical.

Stocks could not hold ATH.

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EL Trumpo does love a good dictator, and his latest fawning is for the grandaddy of them all.

President Donald Trump said he’d prefer not to have to impose tariffs on China, his latest dovish remark toward the world’s second-biggest economy even as he continues to threaten sweeping action.

“We have one very big power over China, and that’s tariffs, and they don’t want them,” the US leader told Fox News host Sean Hannity in an interview that aired Thursday in the US. “And I’d rather not have to use it. But it’s a tremendous power over China.”

So much for the art of the deal. This is fart of the squeal. Quite ignominious for ‘Mr Tariffs.’

Commentary aside, I am surprised the AUD did not rise more. Such weak-kneed rhetoric shows the likes of Scott Bessent have grabbed Trump by the ballbag over fears of inflation.

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If this is a window for a ‘grand bargain’ with Xi Jinping, then AUD is going to bounce hard, even if, in the end, it won’t last.

One would have thought that El Trumpo learned his lesson the first time around: that Beijing is a liar and any deal it strikes will never be delivered.

But enough of that. Who knows what EL Trumpo will say next week or hour?

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AUD bear shooting season is open for now.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.