China is conning the world on ‘net zero’

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Much of the Western World is rapidly deindustrialising to meet ‘net zero’ emissions targets.

For Example, the United Kingdom’s stringent restrictions on fossil fuel energy use have driven up energy costs, resulting in sharp contractions in all energy-intensive industries.

The same deindustrialisation is happening in Germany, following similar “net zero” policies.

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german industrial output

Australians are also being told that we must stop burning fossil fuels like coal and gas to stop “dangerous climate change”.

As a result, Australia is closing cheap, reliable baseload power, resulting in soaring energy costs, which has contributed to the structural decline in Australia’s manufacturing sector.

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China is the largest beneficiary of the West’s “net zero” policies.

China accounted for 31.5% of the world’s carbon emissions in 2023, according to Our World in Data, and its emissions are growing near exponentially.

Annual Co2 emissions
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China has accounted for nearly two-thirds of the growth in the world’s carbon emissions since 2000.

Global emissions

China is the largest importer of gas and coal in the world, much of which comes from Australia. China is also the largest coal producer and user in the world.

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In fact, China burns 30% more coal than the rest of the world combined.

Global coal consumption

According to Statista, the number of coal-fired power plants in China (1,161) dwarfs all other countries.

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Number of coal fired power plants

A new report from John Kemp from Reuters shows that China’s electricity generation from thermal coal grew by 51% in the decade to 2024 to a record 6,344 billion kWh.

China Thermal generation
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Chinese domestic coal production hit a record 4,759 million tonnes in 2024, up from 4,658 million in 2023 and 4,496 million in 2022, in response to government directives to boost inventories and ensure electric reliability.

China coal production

Imports also accelerated to a record 543 million tonnes from 474 million in 2023 and 293 million in 2022 to ensure fuel inventories remained plentiful.

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China coal imports

China’s government has also granted construction permits for the equivalent of two large new coal-burning power plants every month.

Thermal coal-fired electricity generation accounted for two-thirds of total Chinese electricity generation in 2024.

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China power generation

The above data proves that the fantasy of ‘net zero’ emissions is dilusional without China’s participation.

China has looser environmental controls and standards than the West and its energy efficiency is relatively poor, as illustrated below.

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global energy intensity

Therefore, instead of sending the world’s production and fossil fuels to China, it would make more sense for developed countries, including Australia, to retain their industrial capacity and burn their hydrocarbon energy at home with higher environmental controls.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.