If you are a young family, leave Sydney

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Domain’s house price report recorded a median house price for Sydney of $1,645,444 at the end of 2024, more than double the $811,000 median price in 2014.

Sydney median house price

The following table illustrates that Sydney’s median house price is around $580,000 higher than Canberra, Australia’s second most expensive capital city.

Domain median house prices

Domain median house prices as of 31 December 2024.

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A recent CBA analysis revealed that Sydney’s housing affordability was the lowest on record when mortgage payments on the median-priced home are compared to dual average full-time earnings.

Housing affordability

PropTrack’s housing affordability report also revealed that New South Wales is the most expensive state in Australia to buy a home.

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Affordability in New South Wales has deteriorated considerably since 2020-21, surpassing the previous low of 2007-08 in terms of how many homes people throughout the income distribution can purchase.

NSW housing affordability

PropTrack estimated that a median-income household in New South Wales could barely afford 10% of the homes sold in 2023-24. A typical renter household trying to buy their first home could only afford 8% of properties.

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Low-income households are effectively barred from becoming homeowners at today’s pricing levels and interest rates. PropTrack estimated that a household with a 20th percentile salary could only buy 3% of the homes sold in the state last financial year.

Sydney tenants have also been heavily hit by rising rents, as shown in the chart below from Domain.

Sydney rents
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The median asking house rent soared to a new high of $775 per week in the September quarter of 2024, up 49% from $520 per week in the September quarter of 2019.

Median asking unit rents reached a new high of $720 per week in the September quarter of 2024, up 39% from $517 per week in the September quarter of 2019.

Sydney’s house and unit asking rents are easily the highest in the country.

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This week, The SMH reported that while Sydneysiders are being forced to live in high-rise apartment towers, few of these homes are suitable for raising families.

“A cramped, two-bedroom apartment shouldn’t be the only way people can live in a [town] centre that’s well connected – you need more options”, says Canterbury-Bankstown Council town planner Liam Apter.

Apter, a strategic planner in the council’s city shaping and design team, has called on the NSW government to change the state’s apartment design guide and planning legislation to force new developments to include a certain minimum of three- or four-bedroom apartments.

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“[Councils] can’t individually solve this problem because developers could build elsewhere”, Apter said.

“Family-sized apartments is one piece of it, and it’s not the silver bullet to the housing affordability crisis, but I think it’s a way to set us up for success”.

In November, domain property editor Alice Stoltz noted that many of the apartments constructed during last decade’s apartment boom weren’t built to meet owner-occupiers’ needs.

“These apartments are numerous in number and also quite small and constrained in terms of their footprint”, she said.

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“Often they won’t have balconies, decent natural light, and often were built during a period where costs were kept incredibly low”.

“We are not creating the right properties in the right areas where people want them”.

“Often, we are seeing these apartments built in areas where people don’t want to live, or there isn’t enough infrastructure in place”.

“It is a stark reminder to governments that we need ‘fit for purpose’ housing that caters to buyers today and into the future”, Stoltz added.

The NSW Productivity and Equality Commission promotes these types of apartments as the solution to Sydney’s housing crisis.

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Defects in new high-rise developments are also a serious concern.

According to state government analysis, more than half of newly registered buildings since 2016 have had at least one serious defect.

Is it any wonder that Sydney’s birth rate has plunged and young people are abandoning the city in significant numbers?

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Young families should leave Sydney while they can because they have no housing future.

Sydney is literally projected to transform into a high-rise city unsuitable for raising children.

Sydney dwelling composition
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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.