The Market Ear on the latest equity signals.
The break out?
Is WSJ’s “won’t impose new tariffs yet” article enough for futures to break out to the upside when markets are closed? SPX futures breaking above the short term trend line as of writing. A close here or higher and things risk becoming even more squeezy…
Source: Refinitiv
NASDAQ as well
NASDAQ futures trading above the negative trend line. Note we are “well” above the 50 day again.
Source: Refinitiv
Far from overbought
Equities have squeezed lately, but we are far from overbought levels.
Source: Refinitiv
A 2-month low in positioning
“Our measure of aggregate equity positioning fell from its mid-November highs near the top of the long-run historical band (z score 0.9, 96th percentile) to a 2-month low this week, about halfway down to neutral (z score 0.47, 71st percentile). The decline has been led by discretionary investor positioning”
Source: Deutsche Bank
Professional investor selling paused this week
After a four-week decline beginning just before the 18-December FOMC meeting, funding spreads were flat last week. The positive reaction from stocks and bonds around the CPI release likely contributed to the decline in fears. Imagine pros start chasing this market again…
Source: GS
CTAs in equities
Running longs, but far from big longs.
Source: DB
What are they watching?
We ask ourselves what charts AAII bulls are watching? Bullish sentiment at extremely depressed levels.
Source: DB
With Scott Bessent busy looking to support Wall Street in the early days of the regime, I am long.
