When robots dream of Australian dollars

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CTAs and systemics aggressively bought Australian dollars last week, undoing some of the recent bearish imbalance.

BofA has more.

With trend followers stretched long USD and only moderately long US equities, the SG CTA benchmark posted declines on the week.

In FX, our model covered short EUR, GBP, and AUD positions this week and is still short CAD and MXN.

We note that trigger levels vary among actual CTAs and that trend followers still short EUR, GBP, and AUD could reduce the size of their positions in the coming days especially if USD continues its decline.

EUR/USD has come in some which is less DXY bearish.

The/AUD squeeze has been more violent.

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I am surprised the AUD has not climbed more on this kind of move. That might suggest there are still significant outflows underway.

Anyway, there is scope for robots to go either way here now.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.