Australian Economy Australian interest rates

Buoyant retail sales challenge rate cut narrative

Tuesday 4 February 2025

The Q4 2024 inflation data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) suggested that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will likely begin cutting the official cash rate at its 18 February meeting.

December’s retail sales data from the ABS challenges this view, however.

While nominal retail sales in Australia fell by 0.1% in December. This followed solid increases of +0.5% and +0.7% in October and November, respectively.

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About the author

Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.