Energy buffoonery is an LNP speciality.
Energy bills could rise by nearly 70% over the next 10 years under current government policy, a new report has estimated – findings likely to be seized on by the Coalition as it pushes its alternative plan.
The federal Labor government has set the aggressive target of having renewable energy generate 82% of the country’s electricity by 2030, but a new report, commissioned by the Alliance for Responsible Citizenship Research, estimates that will raise bills by 69%.
ARC chief executive Gerard Holland said Australia had endured substantial price rises in the last near 20 years.
“Energy bills have increased 67% in real terms since the Coalition left office in 2007,” Mr Holland said.
“But 60% of that increase has happened in the last 10 years. Something has happened that leaves us on a drastically different trajectory than we would have otherwise been on. That coincides with the expansion of renewables from 8% to 34%. It has been a policy choice.”
Yes, it has. But the wrong choice was not the use of renewables which makes perfect sense given, you know, free sun and wind. It was to not have gas to support them.
That choice is NOT about supply. It is about failed gas market structure. The East Coast gas export cartel is an insatiable gouger that will devour the nation if not stopped.
If Dutton wins power, failure to learn this lesson will deliver a much worse energy shock in one year, not ten.
As it stands, Dutton intends to strip energy rebates from households and businesses and gut the ADGSM, just as LNG imports begin later this year.
This is a gas industry wet dream but it will not help Australia. Au contraire!
The East Coast gas cartel will immediately restrict local supply to ensure that LNG imports become the marginal price setter.
At this stage, Asian futures markets put that price at…wait for it…$27Gj.
This is double the local price today.
Which will double wholesale electricity prices.
Household and business energy bills will rocket 80-100% in the space of about a year.
This is a 4-5% direct CPI shock and double that with spillovers.
It coincides with the forthcoming iron ore smash out of China and Simandou, meaning the budget must tighten and the RBA hike directly into a massive national income shock across 2026/27.
This is Australia’s Argentine moment in which house prices and living standards collapse in a nightmare scenario from which the nation never fully recovers.
It may not happen because Dutton’s dunces will panic and instead increase energy rebates. Maybe that is even the plan, put forward at Gina’s birthday party, to pad her gas profits with your money.
But from a public policy debate point of view, Dutton’s energy policies are a national economic calamity, and that is surely a matter for consideration.
