Yesterday I found Trump’s opening salvos in his trade wars confusing.
Applying 25% tariffs to Mexico and Canada for the same ostensible reason—fentanyl and illegal immigrants—made no sense given it only comes through Mexico.
I theorised that the Canadian add-on was personal to Trump in light of Justin Trudeau’s poor relationship with him.
Thinking it through, there is a reason for Trump’s north and south attack.
He is in the business of building Fortress America, to make his people believe in their nation and its boundaries, so giving all borders the same treatment makes sense.
I urge you to watch Robert Lighthizer on 60 Minutes to get a sense of Team Trump.
Lighthizer proposes “strategic decoupling” from China.
He argues that China has been winning the trade war for thirty years, and it is time to turn that around because China is a threat to the US way of life.
But Lighthizer is not part of Team Trump time around, and I wonder how fake this makes Fortress America.
The brief Mexican and Canadian tariff episodes suggest it is not overly real. The 10% applied to China is a nothingburger.
There is also the immigration “bait and switch” which arms the borders but opens the floodgates for those flying over them.
Certainly, Trump is not to be trusted. If China were to throw billions into Trumpcoin, I suspect his fortress throw open the portcullis.
However, it would still be unwise to make policy upon this assumption.
For Australia, Fortress America, with secured borders and supply chains, is not bad.
We have critical minerals America needs and a strong hand to play in Pacific freedom.
Nobody in the Trump administration has ever suggested that it abandon the Pacific, and there is no reason to think it would do so given that it is far better off keeping China as far away as possible.
A real Fortress America would mean considerably greater pressure on Australia to morph itself into an anti-China spearhead.
Fake Fortress America will say so, too, but not insist upon decoupling.
