The Ukraine War should never have happened. Russia should have been courted by the West instead with economic access and security guarantees.
When it did happen, it drove Russia into the arms of China, forming a titanic “no limits” autocratic Asia supercontinent, intensifying Cold War 2.0.
Undoing this in some measure is no bad thing for Australia.
For instance, Trump is talking up a trade deal with China while he courts Russia. He is having affairs with the two married autocrats. This is a wedge in the supercontinent.
Trump’s objective in China is not tariffs; it is a trade super deal. The NYT has more.
More than half a dozen current and former advisers and others familiar with Mr. Trump’s thinking say that, although there would be significant hurdles to reaching any agreement, the president would like to strike a wide-ranging deal with Mr. Xi, one that goes beyond just reworking the trading relationship.
Mr. Trump has expressed interest in a deal that would include substantial investments and commitments from the Chinese to buy more American products (despite China’s failure to buy an additional $200 billion of goods and services under the 2020 agreement). He would like an agreement to also include issues like nuclear weapons security, which he envisions ironing out man to man with Mr. Xi, his advisers say.
…Advisers like Howard Lutnick, Mr. Trump’s commerce secretary; Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent; and the billionaire Elon Musk have been encouraging the president’s instincts, telling him he is in a position to strike a significant agreement, a former official and another person familiar with the conversations said.
…Some Chinese analysts have downplayed the likelihood of a deal, given the increasingly antagonistic relationship. But Chinese officials and think tank experts have been working on a proposal to attract Mr. Trump’s interest, and running the idea by business people and other experts.
According to a former diplomat, who declined to be named to discuss private conversations, one Chinese offer could include investments in the United States that would create an estimated half a million jobs in industries like solar, electric vehicles and batteries. Chinese companies are willing to discuss taking minority stakes in joint ventures or licensing their technology to American partners, the diplomat said.
The proposal could also include substantial Chinese purchases of American exports, as well as cooperation on maintaining peace with North Korea and rebuilding Ukraine. It may also include promises to maintain the dollar as the pre-eminent global currency.
It’s not clear what the Chinese would ask for in return, though many analysts believe Mr. Xi would try to get relief from some of the tariffs Mr. Trump has imposed on the country, as well as export controls that have limited China’s access to advanced technology.
Don’t get me wrong. There are some very weird and dangerous forces behind King Trump. The theo-autocratic think tank rump of Heritage Foundation and others are imperialist loons.
Not to mention Elon Musk and the mad billionaires of Silicon Valley who seem to have confused fascism with libertarianism. Or maybe that’s just profits.
Trump’s geopolitical galavanting may be a precursor to a very strange and untrustworthy America.
However, we need to give this time. I can’t see how forcing Europe to take responsibility for its own border and freeing the US to wedge the autocratic Asian supercontinent is necessarily a bad outcome for Australia.
It may loosen the bonds of NATO but so long as they don’t break, it may be worth it. It will strengthen its capability.
It also frays the normatives of multilateralism that protect smaller states from Great Powers. But if that throws up a Sino/American economic super deal, that would be immensely beneficial to Australian security.
Would that be more or less likely to prevent what is happening off Australia’s east coast right now? We can’t say yet.
Three Chinese warships have been spotted in international waters off the coast of Australia’s largest city, Sydney, in a rare show of military might that will likely test diplomatic ties between Canberra and Beijing.
The People’s Liberation Navy’s Jiangkai-class frigate Hengyang, the Renhai-class guided-missile cruiser Zunyi and the Fuchi-class replenishment vessel Weishanhu are currently operating off the east coast of Australia, the Department of Defence in Canberra said in an emailed statement late Wednesday.
There is also this, which would be a Bobby Dazzler for the economy.
Asked whether the U.S. was prepared to increase sanctions on Russia or reduce them depending on how talks to end the Ukraine war go, Bessent said: “That’d be a very good characterization.”
The return of Russian gas would crash the Easy Coast gas export cartel and turn the looming LNG import calamity into a boom of lower energy prices for Aussie households and businesses.
Trump’s methods are obnoxious and disruptive; they derange the fake left, especially, but they also open opportunities.
Let’s see what art of the deal throws up before we panic.
