Leading index firms

Westpac with the note.

Leading Index growth rate lifts to 0.58%, a 2½ year high.
Above-trend momentum is becoming more convincing.
Reads point to a gradual recovery rather than a sudden surge.
All components contributing positive to growth signal.

The start of 2025 has seen a continued improvement in Australia’s growth pulse. The latest rise in the Leading Index growth rate takes it to the strongest pace since July 2022, when the RBA was raising interest rates aggressively in response to a surge in inflation that was also weighing heavily on household finances. While the above trend growth pulse is becoming firmer and more convincing it is still not particularly strong. It remains more consistent with a gradual recovery than a sudden surge.

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.