Here is ‘hire a hawk” Warren Hogan blathering about holding rates high.
Sky is lapping the idea of a rate cut being politicised for the ALP when, in fact, it is resistance to the cut that is politicised in favour of the LNP.
Aussie inflation is beaten.
Services inflation is falling with wages.
Core is buggered. Administered prices are going to get smashed with headline CPI over the next year. Rents too.
Wages are going lower because that’s what the immigration-led, labour market growth economy does.
This also scotches arguments about low unemployment triggering more inflation. The immigration-led, labour market growth economic model creates its own labour supply and output gap.
It does not do wage growth.
Goods inflation is in the band and falling, despite the low AUD.
Inflation is beaten with wage-sensitive services, rents, administered prices and goods smashed by tariff dumping all ahead. It is all well ahead of RBA forecasts as well.
As for the economy doing well, Hogan is smoking crack with a sprinkle of fentanyl.
We’ve had nearly three years of ceaseless per capita recession, and everybody is wondering where all their money went.
A modest Christmas rebound that is already partly retraced is not an economy comfortable with high rates. Both NZ and Canada have been cutting rates for months, and there’s been little rebound. The cost of living shock is enormous.
I have heard multiple reports of Hogan dominating post-RBA press conferences as he blathers pointlessly about his discredited inflationary thesis instead of addressing the data.
This is not in line with the RBA, which has a strong history of following the data even when it implodes its own blundering forecasts.
It should and will do so again unless it has been politicised, towards the LNP!
