Charlie McElligott at Nomura today on the resilience of stocks.
Trump doing the dance on Tariffs (exploiting oscillating periods of market calm to inject volatility—and vice versa—which will continue into each month’s escalations), but the statement of intent is there: Structurally, he has a desire to rebalance global trade with the U.S.,reverse / reduce the “exhorbitant privilege” of the (over-valued) US Dollar’s “Reserve Currency” status (global hegemon, “cleanest dirty shirt” relative to R.O.W., making it the preferred destination as the best store of other nations’ excess trade balances)…for something more “floating” and transactional / FDI –based.
Rationally then, this paradigm shift should then hypothetically boost things “Reserve Alts”—like Yen as a “credible” global currency alternative (at least locally to trade this narrative, esp with the BoJ rate normalization and pending hikes), along most glaringly with Gold (does it ever go down?!) and perhaps too Bitcoin, as beneficiaries from even just a marginal rebalancing of R.O.W. reserves / excess trade balances.
