US jobs preview

Friday 7 February 2025

I never bet on employment reports. It is too flaky. But here’s Goldman’s take on the NFP.

We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 190k in January, above consensus of +170k … We assume that the Los Angeles wildfires and colder-than-usual weather will each subtract 20k from January job growth. … We estimate that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1%, in line with consensus.

And BofA.

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.