Australian interest rates Australian Politics

Will RBA turn the election tide for Labor?

Monday 17 February 2025

The latest YouGov poll suggests the Dutton-led Coalition will most likely win the upcoming federal election and form the next government.

YouGov’s latest MRP model suggests the Coalition would likely win around 73 seats in the 150-seat House of Representatives, with a lower estimate of 65 and an upper estimate of 80, if a federal election were now.

The modelling suggests that Labor would hold around 66 seats in the next parliament, with a lower estimate of 59 and an upper estimate of 72.

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About the author

Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.