America will not abandon Australia

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The pet shop has gone mad this weekend with all and sundry declaring ANZUS dead and Australia alone in the world.

America may abandon NATO though I doubt that as well. It looks more to me like America wants Europe to pay its own way in its defence.

There is no danger to America from the Atlantic any more. Even less if its forces are freed up by Europe constraining Russia.

Meanwhile, calculations for America in the Pacific are very different. Have a listen to Ben Fordham last week and discussion in which China taking over Australia would “sandwich” the rest of Asia into Chinese dominance.

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This is the mirror image of rhetoric of the first Trump administration, particularly Steve Bannon, that the Pacific is the US’ natural sphere of influence and Australia is the US anchor of liberal democratic strategic power in the Indo-Pacific.

Allowing Chinese dominance of Asia and the western Pacific is the opposite strategic calculation for America as Europe and the Atlantic. It is inviting the enemy to operate in your backyard.

American interests are much better served by keeping China engaged as far from Hawaii as possible on the western edge of the ring of fire.

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The Trump administration wants to weaponise its alliance network to this end and we must do it.

But it makes absolutely no sense for America to walk away from the region.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.