The federal government is targeting 82% of electricity being generated by renewables by 2030.
Clean Energy Regulator figures show that renewables accounted for 46% of electricity in the grid in the last quarter of 2024.
Modelling by energy consultant Rystad Energy contends that renewable energy will only account for 65% of electricity generation by 2030, leaving Labor 17% short on its target.
Rystad Energy’s figure of 65% is based on the assumption that Labor will win the upcoming election.
“Grid instability, power shortfalls, a looming gas shortage and infrastructure bottlenecks have created a perfect storm that could derail the country’s more immediate energy transition as energy security issues come to light”, Rystad said in a research note.
“Renewable energy adoption is accelerating at unprecedented rates, and Australia is at the forefront of a battery revolution. However, more action is urgently needed to prevent a power shortfall in the coming years”.
“The continent’s dispatchable generation is nearing critical levels and decisions made today will be pivotal in avoiding blackouts”.
Australia is nowhere near decarbonising the economy.
According to the federal government’s 2024 Australian Energy Update, only 9.4% of Australia’s energy consumption in FY2023 was from renewable sources.
The specific breakdown of energy consumption by fuel source is as follows:
- Coal: 25.9%
- Oil: 38.9%
- Gas: 25.8%
- Renewables: 9.4%
Interestingly, the share of energy consumption from renewable sources was only slightly higher in FY2023 (9.4%) than in FY1975 (7.6%).
As illustrated above, coal consumption has fallen significantly (-34%) since 2007. However, coal’s decline has been offset by a 15% rise in oil consumption and a 34% lift in gas use.
The situation is much worse in China and India, which are burning record coal volumes and plan to burn even more, sending global emissions into the stratosphere.
